US · SPY · +5 trading days

Every call we ever made. Checked against the market.

Each day Sentiscale's news mood takes a side — bullish or bearish — and 5 trading days later the market grades it. This page is generated from the full history, automatically, misses included.

Read the hit rate against the benchmark, not on its own. SPY rises over most 5-day windows, so a caller who simply said BULLISH every day would have scored 49% on these same 97 days. The edge above is the difference — that, not the hit rate, is what the gauge adds.

And read the edge against its interval. A call is graded over the following 5 trading days and we make one every day, so neighbouring calls are judged on almost the same stretch of market — they are nowhere near 97 independent tests. Roughly 19 of them are independent, and the interval quoted above is a moving-block bootstrap that resamples runs of consecutive days rather than pretending each call stands alone. A narrower number would look better and mean less.

Method: a day's call is the sign of its news-mood score (|mood| ≥ 0.15 takes a side; below that is NEUTRAL and never scored — 182 of the 280 days tracked are NEUTRAL and so sit outside the hit rate entirely). The return is SPY from the close of the first trading day on or after the news day to the close 5 trading days later. A call counts only once that return is realized — recent days show PENDING. History is append-only; nothing is edited or removed. Data as of 2026-09-25.